New additions to the list are potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead. Arsenic and tellurium to be removed.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has released its draft 2025 List of Critical Minerals, which will guide future U.S. strategy, investment, and permitting decisions in the domestic sector. The draft identifies 54 mineral commodities, including six new additions: potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead. At the same time, arsenic and tellurium have been removed.
Both arsenic and tellurium were included on the 2022 list, but supply chain dynamics have since shifted. According to the USGS, a major copper operation in Utah has added copper telluride recovery capacity, moving the U.S. from being a net importer to a net exporter of tellurium. Arsenic’s global production has also realigned, with Peru overtaking China as the leading source.
Agency Also Outlines the Impacts of Supply Disruptions to the U.S. Economy
Alongside the draft list, the USGS published a report presenting a new supply chain disruption model that quantifies potential impacts on the U.S. economy. “Minerals-based industries contributed over $4 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2024, and with this methodology, we can pinpoint which industries may feel the greatest impacts of supply disruptions,” said Sarah Ryker, acting director of USGS.
The report identifies the top 10 minerals by probability-weighted economic risk from supply disruptions: samarium, rhodium, lutetium, terbium, dysprosium, gallium, germanium, gadolinium, tungsten, and niobium. Except for niobium, which is dominated by Brazil, and rhodium, which is sourced mainly from South Africa’s platinum sector, production of these elements is overwhelmingly concentrated in China. Given Beijing’s repeated expansion of its list of goods subject to export controls in recent years, which have curbed shipments abroad, this dependency poses heightened risks for U.S. industries reliant on secure mineral supplies.
However, the impact of a rhodium supply disruption from South Africa is among the largest: the USGS projects a $64 billion drop in U.S. GDP should shipments cease entirely, though probability weighting reduces the expected impact to $2.5 billion.
Experts say the draft highlights both economic and strategic considerations. Philipp Götzl-Mamba, precious metals trader at German raw materials firm Tradium, commented, “It comes as no surprise that silver is now on the U.S. list of critical minerals, while the criticality of rhodium becomes increasingly relevant. Both metals are indispensable for key technologies, and their inclusion underscores their strategic importance. At the same time, the list sends a clear political signal: Washington recognizes its dependence and is taking steps to address it.”
Photo: iStock/PeterSaltz