Last week ended with a dramatic development in Russia, which was on the brink of civil war with an uprising by the Wagner mercenary force previously operating in Ukraine. Today, Monday, the gold price reacted only weakly to the events, which should be defused for the time being with mercenary leader Prigozhin moving into exile in Belarus. However, the weak dollar currently makes the precious metal more attractive again for foreign investors.
Our assumption of last week that silver is facing a further sell-off to the 200-day line has meanwhile come true. We see a good downside protection here, which of course is not a guarantee. A very good time to enter could have been reached. The same applies to platinum, we see the intensified sell-off over the last week also as an opportunity to find a favorable entry point in the market. In USD/oz, we are in the range that was already held in Q1. Furthermore, the 14-day RSI of below 30 could indicate a possible trend reversal. The platinum market will move into deficit in 2023 despite a slight easing in the South African energy supply. Prices beyond $1000/oz should be possible in the second half of the year. We have seen high interest from the industry over the last week also for stockpiling -mostly a good sign that the bottom may have been reached.
Palladium and rhodium also appear favorable in the overall context, however, both metals have shown strong volatility in the near past. Nevertheless, the end of the half-year is approaching, and balance sheets, cash positions, etc. are coming into focus, which could also be an explanation for the sales. A trend reversal from July onwards is therefore not unlikely.
Ruthenium and iridium remain unimpressed by this, the market is currently resting here with low turnover.
“PGM – Spotlight on Precious Metals” is a commodity column focused on gold and precious metals but mainly dedicated to the widely discussed yet rarely analyzed platinum group metals (PGM). Focused on the industrial applications of the metals as well as their potential as tangible assets, the abbreviation PGM has a twofold significance: With Philipp Götzl-Mamba we could win an experienced precious metal trader, operating at the cutting edge of the industry, sharing his knowledge with us. Financial expert Jens Weidenbach regularly compliments the column with an overview of the currency and capital markets, which have an influence on commodity prices that should not be underestimated.
