The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rate by 0.25% to 4.0%, the euro was subsequently strengthened in the short term and the exchange rate was driven to over 1.09 in relation to the US dollar. The gold price showed little reaction to the ECB decision, the 100-day line functions as a short-term barrier. For the further outlook, it is now important, whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) will initiate an interest rate reversal. The same applies to silver. It is currently consolidating above the 100-day line around $24/oz, although a fall back to the 200-day line around $1.50/oz or 6% below the current level is possible. Even then, Silver would still be in the long-term uptrend.
Platinum is trading at its lowest price this quarter, despite fears of a deficit. The market seems to be oversold here, but the bottom has not yet been formed. In the chart, we are setting up on the long-term support line in this area, in addition, the 200-day line is within reach. A rebound would not surprise us:
Photo: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Palladium continues to trade low, prospects are limited, and producers are grateful for new ideas for long-term use. At the moment, 80% of its use is in the field of combustion engines. This is finite, at least in the EU, and limited to 2035. The market will turn from a deficit market to an oversupply here, so in the medium term there could be further discounts in the price. However, 2035 is still several years away – so short-term disruptions in supply or speculative investor positions could cause unrest. In addition, Poland has announced its intention to take the ban on sales to the European Court of Justice; the country fears rising prices for vehicles and is calling on other countries to join the action.
“PGM – Spotlight on Precious Metals” is a commodity column focused on gold and precious metals but mainly dedicated to the widely discussed yet rarely analyzed platinum group metals (PGM). Focused on the industrial applications of the metals as well as their potential as tangible assets, the abbreviation PGM has a twofold significance: With Philipp Götzl-Mamba we could win an experienced precious metal trader, operating at the cutting edge of the industry, sharing his knowledge with us. Financial expert Jens Weidenbach regularly compliments the column with an overview of the currency and capital markets, which have an influence on commodity prices that should not be underestimated.
