Fossil fuels over renewables: U.S. energy policy shift set to impact raw material demand – wind energy forecast slashed.
U.S. President Donald Trump continues to steer his administration toward a fossil-fuel-centric energy agenda. On Tuesday, he issued a series of executive orders aimed at reviving the domestic coal industry. The directives include increasing the use of coal to meet the country’s growing energy needs and prioritizing coal mining on federal land. Several coal-fired power plants that were scheduled for decommissioning may now remain operational longer due to regulatory rollbacks. One of the orders seeks to override state-level climate and fossil fuel regulations, specifically targeting laws in New York, Vermont, and California.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal accounted for just under 16% of the nation’s electricity generation in 2023—down from nearly 45% in 2010. This decline was largely driven by the expansion of renewable energy. However, Trump has consistently pushed back against this trend since taking office. Early in his term, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement and halted the issuance of new federal licenses for wind energy projects—both actions enacted through executive orders.
Wind Power Outlook Slashed by 40%
In the wake of Trump’s latest decrees, market research firm Wood Mackenzie revised its five-year forecast for new U.S. wind projects downward by a dramatic 40%. The firm now expects only 45.1 gigawatts of new onshore and offshore wind capacity to be installed by 2029, down from a previously forecasted 75.8 gigawatts.
The Trump administration’s energy policy is also likely to reshape demand for raw materials. As previously detailed in our in-depth analysis, U.S. demand for rare earth elements used in wind turbines may decline. However, sectors such as defense—which are also resource-intensive—could offset some of this reduced demand. Trump’s recognition of the strategic importance of critical materials like rare earths and gallium is evident in his push to expand domestic production, regardless of their application in renewables.
Photo: iStock/Nachteule
