The annual report from the International Energy Agency reveals growing supply concentration, falling exploration investment, and rising trade barriers.
Both industry and policymakers have long acknowledged the urgent need to diversify raw material supply chains in light of mounting geopolitical tensions. Yet despite various efforts, the trend appears to be moving in the opposite direction. Supply is becoming increasingly concentrated, particularly in refining and processing. This is one of the key findings from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook, which analyzes global supply conditions for key energy transition minerals.
According to the report, the combined market share of the top three producers of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements reached 86% in 2024, up from 82% in 2020. The IEA expects this figure to decline only marginally over the next decade. Despite some diversification, particularly in lithium, China remains the dominant player, controlling the majority of production for nearly all energy-critical minerals. By 2035, China is projected to supply more than 60% of refined lithium and cobalt, and around 80% of rare earth elements.
Supply and Demand to Align by 2035—With Exceptions
The report offers a somewhat more optimistic outlook for the future supply of several raw materials. For nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths, projected production is expected to keep pace with demand through 2035. A wave of newly announced mining and refining projects promises significant production increases in the coming years. However, copper and lithium remain outliers, with anticipated shortfalls in supply.
Risks also persist, particularly in exploration. Investment in this area has slowed noticeably. At the same time, trade barriers such as export controls are on the rise. According to the IEA, not only are these restrictions becoming more common, but their scope is also expanding. They now often extend beyond raw materials to include processed goods and the technologies required for further refinement.
To safeguard raw material supplies and build a more resilient foundation, the IEA recommends a comprehensive set of measures. These include targeted public funding, streamlined permitting procedures, and price stabilization mechanisms. The agency also underscores the importance of new technologies, such as AI-driven exploration, and calls for greater international cooperation throughout the supply chain. For instance, resource-rich countries should partner with high-tech economies that possess the capacity to process and refine raw materials.
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